Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.044321 0.050967 0.057892 0.065614 0.073953 0.082658 0.092403
2025-04-13 0.032505 0.041939 0.052438 0.064836 0.078932 0.094325 0.112273
2025-04-20 0.027744 0.039263 0.052753 0.069361 0.088922 0.110923 0.137241
2025-04-27 0.021538 0.033671 0.048655 0.067877 0.091282 0.118323 0.151406
2025-05-04 0.018518 0.031470 0.048169 0.070278 0.097875 0.130380 0.170783
2025-05-11 0.015012 0.028035 0.045635 0.069723 0.100551 0.137561 0.184271
2025-05-18 0.013092 0.026499 0.045337 0.071809 0.106344 0.148403 0.202089
2025-05-25 0.011332 0.024914 0.044754 0.073346 0.111327 0.158193 0.218632
2025-06-01 0.008906 0.021873 0.041792 0.071411 0.111620 0.162014 0.227780
2025-06-08 0.006943 0.019225 0.039105 0.069601 0.111873 0.165634 0.236574
2025-06-15 0.006103 0.018427 0.039112 0.071507 0.117026 0.175463 0.253112
2025-06-22 0.005197 0.017327 0.038526 0.072473 0.120860 0.183584 0.267530
2025-06-29 0.004620 0.016880 0.039088 0.075338 0.127635 0.195979 0.287990
2025-07-06 0.003598 0.015247 0.037559 0.075037 0.130067 0.202824 0.301605
2025-07-13 0.003470 0.015659 0.039544 0.080119 0.140108 0.219777 0.328291
2025-07-20 0.002526 0.013770 0.037292 0.078522 0.140621 0.224087 0.338746
2025-07-27 0.002197 0.013411 0.037755 0.081160 0.147181 0.236476 0.359691
2025-08-03 0.001620 0.012085 0.036257 0.080553 0.148989 0.242462 0.372329
2025-08-10 0.001372 0.011712 0.036551 0.082836 0.155012 0.254165 0.392480
2025-08-17 0.001118 0.011198 0.036503 0.084518 0.160140 0.264668 0.411097
2025-08-24 0.000703 0.009720 0.034280 0.082401 0.159508 0.267208 0.419169
2025-08-31 0.000409 0.008416 0.032226 0.080419 0.158964 0.269794 0.427254
2025-09-07 0.000321 0.008169 0.032506 0.082506 0.164615 0.280998 0.446850